Vatungamiriri Vanotarisana Sei Nekukanganiswa? Gadzira Mepu Nyowani

Zvemukati

• Renaissance Huchenjeri paMepu Nyowani Nyika
• Inguva yekuvandudza Nhaurwa Dzedu
• Cartography seKukwikwidza Imperative

Nyika nguva dzose zvine musoro. Asi hazviite nguva dzose zvine musoro kwatiri . Zvatinoona zvinoenderana nekuti tinozvitarisa sei. Kushamisika, inogara iri dingindira mazuva ano muC-suite, chiratidzo chekuti chero maonero atanga tichishandisa kuti tione nyika haicharatidze zvinhu sezvazviri chaizvo.

Ndipo apo nyika painomira kuita pfungwa kwatiri patinoda mepu nyowani yenyika, rondedzero nyowani inomiririra zvirinani chokwadi. Asi kuuya neimwe, uye kuita kuti inamatire, hazvisi nyore. Chimbofunga izvi: Mukutanga kwema1500, Copernicus akatidzidzisa kuti Nyika inotenderera zuva-kwete imwe nzira yekutenderera. Isu takagara neiyi njere kwemakore mazana mashanu. Sei, saka, tichiri kuungana, toti, iyo Valentino Pier muBrooklyn kuti tione "kunyura kwezuva"?

Ichokwadi-semufananidzo chero upi wenguva imwechete kubva muchadenga unojekesa - i "Earthspin." Isu, kwete zuva, tiri kufamba tichiyambuka mudenga kuti tishandure zuva riite husiku. Asi icho chokwadi chakareruka, chemazana emakore hachisati chapinda mumutauro wedu. Haisati yapinda mukufunga kwedu. "Kubuda kwezuva" kwese uye "kuvira kwezuva" kunofanirwa kuve chiyeuchidzo chine simba chekuti nhoroondo dzedu dzezuva nezuva dzinogona kumonyanisa nekukanganisa kugona kwedu kuona zvinhu sezvazviri chaizvo.

"Mamepu" edu epasirese aripo kunyanya mumutauro, kana rondedzero, yatinoshandisa kuisa pfungwa uye nyaya. Mazwi anongori mepu dzepfungwa dzakagovaniswa isu dzatinoshandisa kufamba nenyika. Vatungamiriri vakanyura mune yakasarudzika bhizinesi zano vangave vasina chokwadi nesimba remamepu epfungwa, kana nhoroondo, kuumba kunzwisisa kwedu kwemaindasitiri, matambudziko, kana zvakakosha. Asi funga kuti kuwanda kweruzivo kwakaderedza sei kugona kwevatungamiriri kutaura pasi pavo, kazhinji kuchivamanikidza kuva vatengi venyaya dzevamwe vanhu. Semuenzaniso, tinogona kutaura nezve "kukanganisa" mumaindasitiri edu nekuti ndiyo rondedzero iri kutambidzwa-asi izvo zvatinoreva kana tichiishandisa zvinoramba zvichitinetsa isu nevamwe. Saka, zvakare, zviito zvinotevera.

Kugadzira mepu (kana mepu- kugadzirisa ) chiitiko chakakosha pakutungamira sangano panguva yekuchinja nekukurumidza. Munguva dzakadai, vatungamiriri vanofanirwa kugara vachibvunzurudza nekuvandudza nhoroondo dzinofamba nesangano ravo. Kana vakasadaro, mepu dzakambotungamira sangano panzvimbo pacho dzinozviteya mumaonero echinyakare. Ivo vanovanza uye vanokanganisa, pane kuratidza, nzira dziri kumberi.

Kana, zvakadaro, vatungamiriri vakadzora rondedzero yesangano uye nekuvandudza mamepu epfungwa, masangano avo anozove akashongedzerwa zvirinani kushanduka pamwe nenyika inokurumidza kuvakomba. Kugadzira mepu kwakadaro kunoenderana 'kutonga kwevanhu nekufungidzira zvakanyanya padhuze neichoicho chiri kunze nenzira dzinogadzira mibvunzo iri nani uye kuita sarudzo; inobatsira kuzivisa zvakadzama zvakavigwa zvisizvo pakati pesangano nenharaunda yaro; inogona kushandura zvine simba maitiro evashandi akagovaniswa.

Renaissance Huchenjeri paMepu Nyowani Nyika

Mune dzimwe nguva dzekuchinja nekukurumidza, kugona kugadzira mepu nyowani (ndiko kuti, nhoroondo nyowani) kwakaparadzanisa avo vakagadzirisa zvinobudirira ku — uye kuumba — zviitiko kubva kune avo vakaremadzwa nenhanho yeshanduko. Tora Renaissance, inguva yakafanana yekushandurwa kunoitwa ne "kudyidzana kwepasi rose" (nzendo dzekutsvaga) uye "digitization" (yekudhinda yaGutenberg). Vanhu vakaona sei izvozvi - nhoroondo yavo - vakafambisa zvavakashandura uye vakatungamira shanduko. Ngatitarisei nhaurwa nhatu dzakadzokororwa dzakabatsira kutsanangura iyo nguva yekutsvaga uye shanduko.

Kubva kuFlat Mepu kuenda kuGlobes. Vavaki vekutanga veAtlantic empire -vakavaka, Spain nePortugal, vakachinja kubva pakuenzanisa nyika seyakaenzana kuti vaienzanise sedenderedzwa kwete nekuti vakangoerekana vaona kuti nyika yakatenderera (Europe yakanga ichiziva izvozvo kubvira panguva yeGreek yekare), asi kuti ive nani fungidzira mibvunzo yakakosha yebhizinesi. Makungwa ekumabvazuva nekumadokero kweEurope akange aratidzwa kuti aigona kufamba mugungwa, uye muna 1494 Chibvumirano cheTordesillas chakatora mutsetse mumwechete (kuburikidza neiyi yava kunzi Brazil) kupatsanura nyika dziri mhiri kweEurope pakati penyika mbiri idzi. Zvese zvaive kumabvazuva kumutsara kwaive kwePortugal; nyika dzekumadokero dzaive dzeSpain. Asi mudunhu raani makosheswa akakosha Spice Islands (yanhasi Indonesia, kune rimwe divi repasi) akarara? Uye ndeipi nzira, kumabvazuva kana kumadokero, yaive nzira ipfupi yekuenda ikoko? Kufungidzira pasi sedenderedzwa kwakabatsira kujekesa-uye kupindura-iyo mibvunzo ine hungwaru.

Kubva paZvitsvene kuenda kuRuzivo Rwakafuridzirwa. Unyanzvi hweMiddle Ages hwakanga hwakamira uye hwakaomarara. Chinangwa chayo chikuru chaive chekunamata-kutaura nyaya inoera. Kubiridzira kwaiwanzoitwa; utsanzi hwakanga husina kuremekedza. Kugadzirwa kwemaonero emutsara (kuratidza kudzika pane yakagadzika kanivhasi nekudhirowa kure-kure zvinhu zvidiki), pamwe neruzivo rutsva muatomia nesainzi yesainzi, zvaive zvisipo kubva kuEuropean art kusvika Brunelleschi, Michelangelo, da Vinci, nevamwe vavasimbisa mukati mutsva rondedzero: Basa remuartist raive rekutora chimedu chechisikwa chaMwari sekuchiona kwaakaita. Aya maartist akasvika pakuzivikanwa nemabasa aitaridza achiwedzera kunge ehupenyu, epakutanga, uye ekuratidzira zviratidzo zvepasirese.

Kubva paMahombekombe kusvika kuMisa Musika. Johannes Gutenberg, uyo akagadzira muchina wekudhinda muma1450s, akapedzisa hupenyu. Sei? Nekuti mabhuku aive eumbozha — anobatsira vashoma, aive nawo nevashoma — uye hupfumi hwemuchina wekudhinda waGutenberg waive nemusoro chete mumabhuru makuru. Gutenberg akatambura kuti awane mabhuku aida kurairwa kwakawanda. Asi nekufamba kwenguva, iyo nyowani yekudhinda tekinoroji yakabatsira kushandura pfungwa dzevanhu nezve mabhuku uye chinangwa chavanogona kushandira. Pakazosvika ma1520s, apo Martin Luther paakaraira vanhu vese kuti vaverenge Bhaibheri senzira yekuchengeta mweya yavo, mabhuku akange ave nzira nyowani iyo pfungwa dzakasvika kuvanhu vazhinji. Chokwadi, Bhaibheri kubvira ipapo rakadhindwa mabhiriyoni mashanu kusvika kumabhiriyoni matanhatu uye kuverenga.

Inguva yekuvandudza Nhaurwa Dzedu

Kuti urambe uchienderana nenyika iri kuchinja nekukurumidza, veEuropean panguva yeRenaissance vanogadzirisazve akawanda emamepu avo epfungwa. Nhasi, vazhinji vedu vanoda kugadziriswazve. Heino mienzaniso mitatu yenyaya yechinyakare / mepu dziri kushandiswa zvakanyanya nhasi kudzokororwa kunogona kukurumidza kugona kwesangano kugadzirisa uye kusunungura kugona.

Kubva kuInstructure kune Interstructure. Chii chinonzi kwezvivakwa? Chaizvoizvo, ndicho chimiro chiri pazasi. Izwi rekuti "infrastructure" muChirungu rakatanga kuma1880s, kune wechipiri maindasitiri echimurenga (ndiko kuti, kuuya kwekuwanda kwekugadzira). Nzira iyo izwi rave richishandiswa kare inofungidzira indasitiri yakadzikama, yekusingaperi, uye yakagadziriswa-chimwe chinhu chinosimbisa kubatikana kwenzanga uye hupfumi chiitiko icho chinoitika pamusoro payo. Iyo yaive rondedzero chaiyo, kamwe. Pfungwa yaive yekuti vavaki / vashandisi / vagadziri vevakagonesa vakawanda (semagetsi grid) vakaparadzaniswa nevashandisi.

Asi izvi zvinopesana neramangwana riri kutaurwa nhasi - nevatungamiriri mumagetsi, mvura, zvifambiso, nemamwe maindasitiri - emabhizinesi emhando anowedzera kushanda mukati nepakati pemhando dzese dzekutengeserana. Zvichiwedzera, zvivakwa zviri kugamuchirwa sepuratifomu, iyo-semapuratifomu mune ehupfumi hwedigital - inokanganisa kupatsanurana pakati pevagadziri nevashandisi, uye inogonesa mashandisiro angave asingatarisirwe zvachose nevakagadziri venetiweki. Kana vese avo vakasarudzwa vakuru, vatengi, kana vashandi vanoziva nezve yakapihwa indasitiri ndeyekuti inosanganisira "zvivakwa," saka vanoshaya ruzivo rwekuva shamwari yakanaka mushanduko idzi.

"Interstructure" inotora zvakanyanya mamodheru ari kubuda mumaindasitiri aya. Smart magetsi grid inogonesa mabhizinesi nevanhu kuti vagadzire, vatengese, uye arbitrage magetsi nezera ravo uye rekuchengetedza zvinhu zvakanamatira kunetiweki. Varidzi vekodzero-dze-nzira, kubva kumvura zvinoshandiswa kumakambani ezvitima, vanogona kugonesa kuyerera kwemota dzakazvimiririra uye drones munzira dzega dzekufambisa dzisingapesane neruzhinji rwevanhu. Varidzi vezvivakwa zvepanyama zvemarudzi ese, kubva kupaka nzvimbo dzekuchengetera kusvika kumatura, zvichagonesa kuzvimiririra kwezvinhu kuyerera nekupa nzvimbo dzekuratidzira uyezve kugadzirisa nzvimbo.

Kubva kuMechanical kusvika kuBiological Kufunga. Sekutsanangura kunoita Danny Hillis mu Zvinyorwa zve Dhizaini neSainzi , "Kujekerwa kwakafa, rarama kwenguva refu Chivharo." Zera reKujekeserwa rakaratidzirwa nehunhu uye fungidziro. Yaive nyika yaive nehukama hwehukama hwaive pachena, mutemo waMoore wanga usati wakurumidza kumhanyisa shanduko, uye hurongwa hwehupfumi nehupfumi hwakanga husati hwanyatsobatana. Asi ikozvino, semhedzisiro yekufambira mberi kwetekinoroji uye kwesainzi uye kusimuka kwekudyidzana kwenyika, nyika ine mashoma akati wandei madiki akaomarara masisitimu akaomarara, ayo akasungwa kwazvo. Ipo isu taimbove tichikwanisa kushandisa rondedzero yemutsara uye makanika kutsanangura pasi, isu tave kuda rondedzero rakafemerwa nehupenyu uye nemamwe masisitimu echisikigo. Kufunga kwehupenyu hakuna mutsara. Pane kudaro, sekunyora kwaMartin Reeves nevamwe, zvinoshatisa. Inotarisa pakuedza pane kugadzirisa maitiro ekugadzira imwe mhedzisiro.

Kubva Automation kusvika Kuwedzeredzwa. Mazhinji emakambani uye ongororo yemitemo maererano nehungwaru hwekunyepedzera uye "ramangwana rebasa" rakanangana neotomation-kutsiva kwevashandi vevanhu uye kugona nemichina. Ongororo dzakawanda dzinoshuma kumwe kusiyaniswa kwerondedzero imwechete: Inenge hafu yemabasa ese mune hupfumi hwepamberi inogona kuitirwa kure na2050, kana zvisiri pakutanga.

Ichi chakasimba chevanhu-maringe-muchina dichotomy inopa huwandu hwenzvimbo dzisingaone uye inoregeredza zvidimbu zvakakosha, sekupararira kwemaitiro akaomarara ehurongwa uye netiweki mhedzisiro inokonzerwa nekusungwa kwavo. Zvinonyanya kukosha, inodarika mukana unovimbisa zvikuru webhizinesi uye nechero chikamu chevanhu: iyo-yemuchina interface.

Rondedzero yekuwedzera, pachinzvimbo chekushandisa, inokoka vatungamiriri vebhizinesi, vagadziri vemitemo, vaongorori, nevashandi kuti vanyatso tarisisa kune ino nzvimbo yepakati.Makambani uye nzanga vanofanirwa kugadzira rondedzero inotarisa pazvinogona kuitwa neAI kushandura chiyero chereferenzi pamabasa akati wandei, kazhinji nemaodha akati wandei ehukuru. Muenzaniso wakanaka ndewemunhu. Zvikwereti zvinowedzera AI nedata repfuma zvinogona kufamba kubva pamakumi kana mazana kusvika kumazana ezviuru zvezvikamu zvevatengi uye nekuona mari ichiwedzera ne6 kusvika gumi muzana, kaviri kana katatu nekukurumidza kupfuura izvo zvisingaunganidzi mukana uyu.

Amazon muenzaniso wakanaka weAI sosi yekuwedzera kwete kungoita otomatiki. Iyo kambani, imwe yevanonyanya kushandisa AI uye nemarobhoti (munzvimbo dzayo dzekuzadzikisa, huwandu hwemarobhoti hwakakura kubva pa1,400 muna2014 kusvika pa45,000 mu2016), zvakapetwa zvakapetwa kaviri vashandi vayo mumakore matatu apfuura uye inotarisira kuhaya imwe 100,000 vashandi mugore rinouya (mazhinji acho ari munzvimbo dzekuzadzikisa).

Iyo poindi ndeyekuti isu tinoda rondedzero inotikurudzira kuti tiunze zvimwe zviwanikwa (zvevanhu) zviwanikwa nekumisikidza AI uye tekinoroji, kwete iyo inotarisa pamhedziso mutambo wekugadzirisa kure kwevashandi mitengo chero kwavanenge varipo.

Iyo yekuwedzera nhoroondo haina kuganhurirwa kune zvigadzirwa uye maitiro; iyo zvakare inobata mabasa uye manejimendi. Sezvo zvazvinoreva kuva chiremba zvichizogadziriswa nekuwana mamirioni ezvinyorwa uye kudzidza kwemuchina, zvazvinoreva kuve maneja uye kumhanyisa sangano zvinoshanduka zvakanyanya. Maitiro azvino ekuisa masimba kuzvisarudzo anozotsanangurwazve nekukurumidza sezvo sarudzo dziri kuramba dzichitsigirwa neAI nedata, "kuwedzera" vanoita sarudzo uye vachibvumira maturusi matsva ekugadzirisa uye zvimiro zvesangano zvitsva.

Cartography seKukwikwidza Imperative

Zvakawanda zvakatove zvakanyorwa nezve huwandu hwakawanda hwe data uye ruzivo rwuripo ikozvino kune vatungamiriri. Izvo zvinowanzoshayikwa munhaurwa iyi ndezvekuti chinetso chikuru hachisi chekuva neruzivo rwakawandisa (uropi hwedu hunogara hwakazara neruzivo rwakawanda kupfuura rwatinokwanisa kugadzirisa), asi muruzivo rwacho rwunofashukira runoitika kana tisina hunyanzvi hwekuita. mafashamo anoreva.

Kugadzira mepu kwakakosha, asi kwakanyanya kufuratirwa, chikamu chekujairana neshanduko inokurumidza. Seizvo muenzaniso neNew York pakuvira kwezuva unotiratidza, rondedzero uye mutauro zvinogona zvirokwazvo kutiteya mumaonero echinyakare epasi. Isu tinofanirwa kuwana ruzivo rwemamepu edu epfungwa, uye titorezve izvo zvinoda kutsvakiswazve, kana tichida kuti nyika ive nepfungwa kwatiri zvakare. Icho chinodiwa chehutungamiriri chekambani, uye chine hukama.

Iine 73 muzana yevakuru vakuru vanoona ichikurumidza shanduko yetekinoroji seimwe yenyaya dzavo dzakakosha (kubva kubva makumi matanhatu neshanu muzana gore rapfuura). Kugadzira mepu yekuziva kunotibatsira kuchinjanisa shanduko, asi zvakare inotyaira. Makore mazana mashanu mushure mekuzvarwa patsva, tinorangarira Columbus, Michelangelo, Brunelleschi, da Vinci, nevamwe nekuti mamamepu avo akatsanangura nzvimbo iyo makore avo akaongorora. Nzendo dzanhasi dzekutsvaga dziri kuburitsawo nyika nyowani kwatiri. Mamepu matsva, nhaurwa nyowani, dzichabuda uye dzichatsanangura maitiro atinozvinzwisisa. Kana isu tisiri kuzvigadzira, mumwe munhu ndizvo.