MaDemocrat Anogona Kutarisisa Kusarura kweRepublican musarudzo

Vavhoti veRepublican sevanovharika-musarudzo mumasarudzo avo semaDemocrat anofunga kuti ndizvo?

Mune bepa richangoburwa, vanyori (Mercier, Celniker, & Shariff, 2020) vanotsanangura zvitatu zveongororo vachiongorora fungidziro dzemaDemocrats ekuti maRepublicans angave achida kuvhotera vavhoterwa kubva mumapoka akasiyana siyana. Zvidzidzo izvi zvakaongorora pfungwa dzinoverengeka dzinonakidza pamusoro pezvaitendwa nemaDemocrats nezve kusarura kweRepublican uyezve kuti zvitendero nezvezvinhu zvakasarudzika zvakabatana sei nekutenda kwemaDemocrats nezve kugona kwavo kukwikwidza.

Uku hakusi kuongorora kwakazara kwezvavakawana. Paive nezvakawanda zvekufungidzira zvine chekuita neDemocratic fungidziro yevavhoti veDemocratic kubva kumapoka akasiyana andisingakurukure pano. Semuenzaniso, vanyori vakaedza kusarudzika kunoonekwa pakati pevaDemocrat vevanhu vanobva mumapoka akasarudzika uye maonero eDemocrats aElizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, naPete Buttigieg. Mune ino posvo, ini ndinodonongodza zvimwe zvezvakawanikwa zvainyanya kundifadza.

Iyo bepa rakaburitswa pamhepo risati raiswa mune rejenari uye harisati rave kunyatso tariswa vezera. Semazuva ese, ini ndinokurudzira vaverengi kuti vaverenge iyo yega chinyorwa chekutanga ivo pachavo uye vagadzirewo maonero avo e data - uye vaongorore mhedzisiro yandisingakurukure pano.

Dhata yeChidzidzo 1 yakaunganidzwa kubva kune online sampuro yevatori vechikamu 728 (76% Vachena, 13% Vatema, 7% Mepanishi, 6% East Asia; 56% murume, 44% mukadzi; avhareji zera 35.75). Vatori vechikamu vakabvunzwa nezve kuda kwavo kuvhota vavhoti vezvematongerwo enyika vemapoka akasiyana siyana uye fungidziro yekuti maDemocrat, maRepublicans, nevese maAmerican vangapindura sei kumibvunzo imwechete (pachiyero che0-100%). Paive nemakumi matatu nematanhatu maDemocrat, maRepublican, uye ma167 akazvimirira mune iwo muyenzaniso.

Sechinhu chekutanga chekuenzanisa fungidziro kubva kuvatori vechikamu, vaongorori vakashandisa dhata kubva kunharaunda yenyika yeGallup yakaratidza fungidziro yekuda kuvhotera rimwe boka revanhu. Iyo yenyika Gallup dhata yakanga yaratidza kare kuti maRepublicans vakati vaida kwazvo kuvhotera anotevera mapoka: Katurike (97%), Vatema (94%), maJuda (94%), Hispanic (92%), evhangeri (92%) , kana mukadzi (90%).

Paavhareji, maDemocrat mune muyenzaniso akafungidzira zvisikwa zvakawanda. Izvi zvinosanganisira avhareji Democrat anofungidzira kuti maRepublicans anoratidza kuda kuvhotera mumiriri ari muKaturike (70%), Mutema (40%), wechiJuda (45%), Hispanic (37%), evangelical (76%), kana a mukadzi (43%).

Iyo yenyika Gallup dhata yakanga yaratidza kare kuti maRepublicans vanonzi vashoma kuda kuvhotera anotevera mapoka: socialist (19%), Muslim (38%), kana atheist (42%). MaDemocrat akanyanyorasikirwa nemamaki pane maviri eaya matatu, zvakapihwa avhareji Democrat anofungidzira kuti maRepublicans anoratidza kuda kuvhotera mumiriri wechiMuslim (21%) kana asingatendi kuna Mwari (29%).

Nekudaro, maDemocrat akawedzera mhinduro yakaipa yevaRepublican kuenda kumapoka evaKaturike, Vatema, maJuda, maSpanish, maEvangelical, nevakadzi, pamwe nekuongorora kusiri iko kweRepublican bias vachipesana neHispanics. Uku kufunga kunokanganisa kusanzwisisika kwevaRepublican vakapihwa kuti musarudzo dzeSpanish Marco Rubio naTed Cruz vaive vaviri vevakwikwidzi mu2016 GOP purezidhendi wepurezidhendi.

MaDemocrat zvakare akurudzira kurambwa kweRepublican yemumiriri wechiMuslim kana asingatendi kuti kuna Mwari. Pamusoro pezvo, maDemocrat akafungidzira kuti mangani maRepublicans angave anoda kuvhotera mumiriri anopfuura makore makumi manomwe ekuberekwa kana socialist. Tichifunga kuti vatatu vevakwikwidzi vekumisikidza veDemocrat neRepublican vane makore anopfuura makumi manomwe ekuberekwa (Biden, Sanders, Trump), senharaunda, Sanders anogona kuve neakanyanya kurasikirwa nezvesarudzo yenyika. Dzimwe dhata muChidzidzo 1 dzakaratidza kuti maRepublicans aive akarurama mukufungidzira kuda kweDemocrat kuvhotera vavhoterwa kupfuura kufungidzira kweDemocrat vaive vebato ravo. Izvi zvinogona kuve nekuda kwekuti maRepublicans anga achinyatsoenderana nekuparadzaniswa kuri kuitika muDemocratic Party kupfuura maDemocrat ari mukufungidzira kwavo.

Dhata yeChidzidzo 2 yakaunganidzwa muna Ndira 2020 kubva online sampuro yevatori vechikamu 597. Izvo zvakangoongorora maDemocrat uye ndokuwedzera mibvunzo nezvekuti yakawanda sei mukana weanotora chikamu ane maRepublicans. Kwandiri, chinonyanya kufadza kuwana muChidzidzo 2 ndechekuti iko kusangana kwakajairika kwevatori vechikamu veDemocrat kuva neRepublicans, kwakanyatsojeka fungidziro dzekuda kwemaRepublicans kuvhotera mumiriri wevamwe vanhu. Mhedzisiro iyi inoita senge inosimbisa kukosha kwekubuda mumakamuri edu eerekisi titaurirane.

Dhata yeChidzidzo 3 yakaunganidzwa munaFebruary 2020 kubva pane online sampuro ye930 vatori vechikamu. Chaive chakangofanana neChidzidzo 2, kunze kwekunge chiine chekuyedza kwekuita: Vatori vechikamu vakapihwa ruzivo rwepasi pazero rechokwadi revaAmerica vanoda kuvhotera mumiriri kubva kune rimwe boka revanhu kana ivo vasina kupihwa ruzivo rwakadai. Kuve nekupihwa base base data kwakatungamira kune maDemocrat achifungidzira kukwidziridzwa kwakakwirira kwemumiriri asingatendi kuti kuna Mwari, Mutema, mukadzi, ngochani, chiSpanish, chiJuda, kana chiMuslim, uye kuderera kwesarudzo yemumiriri weCatholic, evangelical, Christian, socialist, kana anopfuura makore makumi manomwe ekuberekwa.

Mhedziso

Vanyori veongororo yakadzokororwa vakaita zvidzidzo zvitatu zvinoratidza kuti maDemocrat anoona sei maRepublicans uye inopa ruzivo rwekuti kusarongeka, maitiro kumapoka, uye maitiro anoonekwa evamwe kumapoka anogona kukanganisa rutsigiro rwemunhu kune mumwe mumiriri. Izvo zvakakodzera kune vezvematongerwo enyika masystem kushandisa ino sainzi yepfungwa kuona avo marongero. Chikurukuru, inopa vatsva vekutanga musainzi yepfungwa nzwisiso yekuti maitiro anokanganisa sei mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika aripo.